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  1. As a reminder, this subreddit [is for civil discussion.](/r/politics/wiki/index#wiki_be_civil)

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  2. From [what I posted at the time](https://www.reddit.com/r/politics/comments/9v0b04/brian_kemps_lead_for_georgia_governor_may_be/e99flu2/):

    >Let’s break down the math. Kemp’s lead is 68,000 votes.
    >
    >According to [this article](https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2018/11/georgia-governor-kemp-abrams/575095/?fbclid=IwAR3_-JzUXpZey4836Y2D3g66gmnXv9DoRb5-8hL9PkT0CN_LLD47zbB7iAo) Kemp has kicked 1.5 MILLION off the rolls since he took office.
    >
    >Next, from [this article](https://politics.myajc.com/news/state–regional-govt–politics/georgia-agrees-add-thousands-voter-rolls-ahead-nov-election/mhgbALm43gvfEyzj0VIMiI/?fbclid=IwAR01lnGJekfPGSs94mW4HhcYjGY7stafXivAi14rE71VG2xUgJfr2UCt31c) we learn blacks are eight times more likely to fail the verification process which would result in them being kicked off. Other minorities 6x as likely.
    >
    >Putting that into an equation:
    >
    >n_blacks + n_whites + n_others = 1.5 million
    >
    >But since n_blacks = 8*n_whites AND n_others = 6*n_whites we can substitute that into the equation. Collecting the now like terms means that
    >
    >15*n_whites = 1.5 million
    >
    >Solving for n_whites = 100,000 whites kicked off the rolls.
    Plugging that into the relation to black voters and that’s 800,000 black voters kicked off and similarly, 600,000 voters of other races.
    >
    >Again, that doesn’t guarantee that they all would have voted for them. However, we all know that blacks are far more likely to vote Democrat (which is why the Republicans are so excited about anything that can disenfranchise them at a higher rate than whites). According to [this source](http://blackdemographics.com/culture/black-politics/?fbclid=IwAR0o7mgvHdv1an8acqGAhBqpfDPJMwyMdWnmeRn5zxbpJURavfauqcHNkF8), somewhere between 60% of blacks will generally vote Democrat although 88% of them voted for Hillary. Let’s split the difference and call it 75%. We’ll come back to that.
    >
    >Next, we can’t assume that everyone kicked off was actually an eligible voter. In some cases, they may have been legitimately kicked off. However, according to [this source](https://www.weeklystandard.com/michael-warren/2018-midterms-whats-the-truth-about-the-53-000-pending-voters-in-georgia?fbclid=IwAR2Tq1v5iWZRe5LPfOUDbe9_0Xu5cQdz_GwK9gk5BReJMMOzGWp9Gd6tKXo) in 2017, 107,000 of the 600,000 kicked off were actually eligible voters. That’s 17.8%. Applying that to the number of disenfranchised blacks, that would be 142,400 eligible black voters. If 75% of them went Abrams and 25% went Kemp, that’s a net gain for Abrams of 71,200 votes.
    >
    >If every one of them actually voted. As high as turnout was this year, it was still only 49% which means 34,888 votes for Abrams.
    >
    >However, that’s just using one figure for what percentage of removed voters were actually still eligible. According to [this article](https://truthout.org/articles/georgias-kemp-purged-340134-voters-falsely-asserting-they-had-moved/?fbclid=IwAR1bD3qLHt7zuwf5mO4IpVCLNd5r1PqBIJOlcXPj7fr3yYmM5cuY5IASYJU), 340,134 of the 530,510 voters removed in 2017 hadn’t actually been ineligible. That’s 64.1%!
    >
    >Taking those numbers into account that would be a gain of 125,636 votes, which would have put Abrams in the lead.
    >
    >Stating that another way, with a conservative estimate, Kemp still won by ~33,000 votes. With a more generous estimate, he lost by ~57,600 votes. That leans the direction of him losing.
    >
    >Sure, some would be added because the other racial demographic leans slightly left, but has very low voter turnout historically. Some would then be subtracted because the whites voted a bit more to the right. So I figure it’d balance out and the big factor is the disenfranchised black population here.
    >
    >So it’s hard to positively say that Kemp stole this election, but given that there have been numerous reports of absurdly long lines in heavily black districts, 214 polling stations closed in mostly black districts, and other voter voter suppression tactics that are harder to quantify, it’s extremely likely.

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